Everything you need to know about returns for the stock market during Presidential election years!

Everything you need to know about returns for the stock market during Presidential election years!

This year, we’re going to elect a new President of the United States. Its one of the more interesting Presidential cycles that I can remember, given the nominees involved. What I also thought would be interesting would be to go back through history and see how the S&P 500 has performed during Presidential election years. Before I did the research, I had a guess that Presidential election years were usually unchanged to lower for the S&P 500. The actual results are very interesting. Here’s what I found:

 

  • I went back to 1928 and there are 22 occurrences (Presidential election years) 

  • The S&P 500 has finished higher on 18 of 22 occurrences (82% of the time)

  • The average gain for the S&P 500 during Presidential election years is +11.03%

  • The biggest gain for the S&P 500 happened in 1928 when it finished higher by +43.81%

  • The biggest loss for the S&P 500 happened in 2008 when it finished lower by -36.55%

  • The S&P 500 was higher for 14 Presidential election years in a row starting in 1944. The streak ended in 2000 when the S&P was down -9.03%

 

Now past performance is not indicative of future returns, but I thought it was interesting to see how positive the returns were for the S&P 500 during Presidential election years. 

 

Thank you for reading! 

 

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