Everything you need to know about returns for the stock market during Presidential election years!
This year, we’re going to elect a new President of the United States. Its one of the more interesting Presidential cycles that I can remember, given the nominees involved. What I also thought would be interesting would be to go back through history and see how the S&P 500 has performed during Presidential election years. Before I did the research, I had a guess that Presidential election years were usually unchanged to lower for the S&P 500. The actual results are very interesting. Here’s what I found:
I went back to 1928 and there are 22 occurrences (Presidential election years)
The S&P 500 has finished higher on 18 of 22 occurrences (82% of the time)
The average gain for the S&P 500 during Presidential election years is +11.03%
The biggest gain for the S&P 500 happened in 1928 when it finished higher by +43.81%
The biggest loss for the S&P 500 happened in 2008 when it finished lower by -36.55%
The S&P 500 was higher for 14 Presidential election years in a row starting in 1944. The streak ended in 2000 when the S&P was down -9.03%
Now past performance is not indicative of future returns, but I thought it was interesting to see how positive the returns were for the S&P 500 during Presidential election years.
Thank you for reading!
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